Sergey Kruglikov: Modelling decision-making

Sergey Kruglikov az Ural Federal University kutatója 2012. február 13-án (hétfő) 18 órától Modeling Decision-making Russian Managers in a Mirros of "The Bear" by Chekhov címmel tart előadást a Társadalomtudományi Kar Szociológia Doktori Iskolájában az ELTE Lágymányosi Campusának 0.100/B Cseh-Szombathy termében. Az előadás nyilvános, minden érdeklődőt szeretettel várunk!
 
Lecture abstract
 
Anton Pavlovich Chekhov, a brilliant Russian writer, lived at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries (1860-1904). About 900 pieces by Chekhov (short stories and plays) give an excellent picture of Russian society on the eve of a decisive turnover. 1905 was the year when the first Russian revolution has started. Chekhov is one of the world's most famous playwrights; his work is still a source of inspiration for the theater and research worldwide.
 
1888: Chekhov finished his play "The Bear": 20 pages, 3 characters, 11 episodes. In a letter to his friend he called it "the trifle that has nothing in common with real life."

1938: at the height of Stalinist repression in the Soviet Union a film "The Bear" with wonderful actors was produced. The tape has been restored recently and is shown by various TV channels at least 5-6 times a year.

2008: A remake was issued by Odessa Filmstudio of independent Ukraine. Nowadays characters speak in Chekhov's language...

21st November 2010 at 9pm on Sky Arts 2 HD. Reece Shearsmith, Julian Barratt and Julia Davis star in Anton Chekhov's "The Bear". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqh3GlW4Lzc
Internet query: .Results: Approximately 2 790 000 (0,09 sec.)
 
Why an interest in "trifles" is so persistent?
 
The genius has given us a marvelous multidimensional model of human relations, accurate in details, types and behavior patterns. In contrast to rapidly changing realities of life, the model presents a complete phenomenon which can be used as a mirror to watch reflections again and again. But even the most perfect mirror reflects the only subject, ourselves...
 
So, what and whom this play is about? The contents can be presented in such way...
 
The main character is Gregorii Stepanovich Smirnov, a middle-aged landowner, i.e. a head of a small agricultural enterprise. He has arrived to get the money owed to him by a debtor. He is in a sharp need for money because the next day he is to pay the interest on a mortgage. The bank, in his opinion, could take his estate.
A typical situation. Manager provides for the current business financing... That's only the debtor is already dead for seven months. His widow does not refuse to pay, but asks to wait for two days... That is the point to start everything …
 
Our aim is an interpretation of Smirnov’s choice in solving his problem.
 
Application of decision tree technology to modeling decision-making in management is discussed. Concepts: problematic situation, position of decision-maker, state of controllable system, space of choices, alternatives and outcomes. Notions: deterministic situation, risk and uncertainty. Techniques: quantitative and qualitative values indicating the state of controllable system. The basic scheme of decision tree is applied to construct alternatives space and to interpret the choice made by the "bear".
The decision-maker is a carrier of internal values system. The choice space is interpreted in terms of three basic control subsystems: affect, will and intellect. Quality indices corresponding to classical submissions by Wilhelm Dilthey (1833 - 1911) of the dominance of sensual, strong-willed or rational personality component are discussed. Quantitative criteria of decision-making under circumstances of risk and uncertainty are presented.
 
As a result, students will master one of contemporary methods for modeling decision-making process. Practice of its application and boundaries to use would be presented.
 
Tasks for homework include.
1) Present a simple model of choice situation that corresponds to a given tree.
2) For any play by Hungarian or foreign playwright construct the decision tree for the main hero’s problem situation and interpret the choice of solution. 

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