Series of Discussions: War in Ukraine

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 In the upcoming weeks, roundtable discussions also in Hungarian are planned to take place offline and online as well.

Eugenio Zaniboni: International law and armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine

21 MARCH 2022 (Monday) 17.30-19.00

Online: on TEAMS via this link.

Legal and geopolitical roots of the conflict and possible future scenarios.

Eugenio Zaniboni is a Professor at the University of Foggia and a Visiting Professor at Eötvös Loránd University. His list of publications can be accessed here.

The lecture has been recorded and can be watched on MS Teams.

Áron Tábor: American foreign policy and the war in Ukraine

17 MARCH 2022 (Thursday) 17.30-19.00

Online: on TEAMS via this link.

The Biden administration could not deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine, but they could raise the costs of the war for Russia. The presentation will provide an overview of the choices made by the United States, starting from Ukraine’s unique role in the context of American domestic contestation during the Trump presidency, and examining the decisions after the realization that a full-scale attack could indeed happen. While in some sense the American response was belated, Biden still managed to increase the price of the invasion by organizing a unified response through sanctions and by arming Ukraine. Furthermore, the strategic use of publicizing intelligence information could seriously complicate Russia’s lead-up to the war, neutralizing the obvious pretexts for an invasion. The second half of the presentation will reflect on the use of IR theory in such an analysis, asking how the choices of US foreign policy can be interpreted through the prisms of different approaches. Here it is important not to deny Russian or Ukrainian agency, but the United States is still an important actor, whose decisions can alter the circumstances in which others operate.

The lecture has been recorded and can be watched on YouTube.

JOHN SZABÓ: THE QUESTIONS OF ENERGY POLICY

10 MARCH 2022 (Thursday) 17.30-19.00

Online: on TEAMS via this link.

Offline: ELTE Faculty of Social Sciences, North Building (Pázmány Péter sétány 1/a, H-1117 Budapest), Professor's Club (2.139)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the turbulence already prevalent on the EU’s energy markets. Natural gas and electricity prices are as volatile as ever, while EU importers face the real risk of supply cut-offs, if the conflict escalates. Assessed from a broader historical context natural gas flows may have generally been stable in the past decades, but the events are all too familiar. The EU faced natural gas supply-related issue during the 2009 supply crisis and Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, after which it introduce tools to mitigate supply risks, but did not pivot from the fuel. This, in-part, was due to the lack of competitive alternatives. Now, it now has many of the tools necessary to accelerate an energy transition and support a shift away from the fuel. Will this be the end for natural gas in the EU, severing the EU-Russia gas bridge? The urgency is clear, the path, not so much.

The lecture has been recorded and can be watched on YouTube.

VIKTOR SZÉP: SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA

07 MARCH 2022 (Monday) 17.30-19.00

Online: on TEAMS via this link.

Offline: ELTE Faculty of Social Sciences, North Building (Pázmány Péter sétány 1/a, H-1117 Budapest), Professor's Club (2.139)

Sanctions have become a critical pillar of transatlantic policy towards Russia. In 2014, they were proposed to be temporary measures but sanctions have proved to be an expression of a more antagonistic relationship between the West and Russia. Indeed, recent Russian actions have prompted a remarkable coordination between the European Union and the United States. Transatlantic coordination is beyond expectations which is manifested in the sheer number and types of sanctions that are now imposed against Russia. In the early days of the conflict, we do not know whether sanctions will be effective but we can see that they significantly raise the cost of Russian actions. The presentation hopes to contribute to the ongoing discussions on sanctions and to a better understanding of the potentials and limits of sanctions.

The lecture has been recorded and can be watched on YouTube.

PÁL DUNAY: WAR IN UKRAINE: WHAT IS AT STAKE?

03 MARCH 2022 (Thursday) 17.30-19.00

ONLY online: on TEAMS via this link.

There is war in Ukraine and Europe. Now again, as in most of its modern history, the continent is neither whole, free, nor in peace. The Russian Federation and the West attribute this to diametrically opposing reasons. Among the less tangible ones, one can find the lop-sided power structure of Russia. Russia is a great power that has a few strengths and also weaknesses. It relies on its strengths among them military force is probably the most prominent. Russia has been a loser of current history and would take a revanche for its current perceived and real losses. It is open to question to what extent has the current war been due to a historical rule of revanchist losers and what has been the role of incidental factors in it, including personality.

The presentation will offer an overview of the road that led to the Ukraine – Russia war and contemplate which of these processes will have a lasting effect on the international security system generally and for European security specifically.

The lecture has been recorded and can be watched on YouTube.